Blog Northwest Florida

Buyer's Market in Pensacola . . . But Things Look to be Changing! Most experts agree, once you exceed six months of housing inventory in a local real estate market, you are in a Buyer's Market. And like most of the country, the Greater Pensacola Bay Area has found itself in a buyer's market for more than two years now.

But is a shift afoot? The numbers seem to say so. Our average selling price has stabilized, or crept up, depending on which month you choose as your cutoff point. And our inventory, while at a whopping 15.44 months for the month ending in May, was a far cry from the height of 24.46 months back in January.

And while there was plenty of bad news to focus on in the annual "State of the Nation's Housing" report issued today by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, a "mild downturn" is the concensus forecast of the majority of economists, and "the fundamentals of demand are likely to drive a strong rebound in housing once prices bottom out and the economy begins to recover."

With the baby boomers hitting their peak retirement years from 2012 to 2014, markets on the coast with mild climates and affordable housing, like the Greater Pensacola Bay Area, look like a good bet for real estate.

For a similar article:

Definition of a Buyer's Market, Pensacola Bay Area Style

Pensacola Real Estate Headlines Don't Tell the Entire Story . . . Today's Pensacola News Journal's feature story on the local real estate market was headlined "Area Home Sales Continue to Slide." But within the same newspaper another real estate article was headlined ""Prices Remain Higher Despite More Competition, Fewer Buyers."

Both of these headlines ring true, but there are back stories (Aren't there always?). The first article points out that we are seeing significantly fewer sales; 599 in May of '08 vs. 870 in May of '07, but doesn't really explore the fact that actual prices aren't declining by much.  The second article hits this, pointing out that our prices aren't coming down in relation to the declining number of sales. Sellers (potential sellers!) are clinging to their higher prices. And, a quick look at the large number of withdrawn and expired listings tells the tale of many potential sellers simply choosing to hold on to their Pensacola area properties.

Here's the thing to understand - to borrow from the National Association of Realtors - "all real estate is local." And by local I mean we really have to drill down to the local real estate sub markets. I just posted a Pensacola Beach real estate market update on my Pensacola Undressed blog that shows the total number of sales on the beach, as well as sales prices, increasing year over year. Accurate? Absolutely. But is there more to the story than the numbers tell? Yes. Several very expensive units ($2m +) in a Gulf front pre-construction property closed early this year skewing the statistics.  

Of course, like most of the rest of the country the Greater Pensacola Bay Area real estate market has seen some significant changes. Our prices were rising rapidly prior to Hurricane Ivan, and then the loss of inventory in the wake of the storm meant that homes went for full price or more for a period of time. As the market started settling back in the economy, on a national level, became a growing concern.

So here we sit. Too much inventory at prices that don't tempt the market.

But, are there opportunities? You'd better believe it. Not all sellers want to be sellers forever. Some people need to move on and are pricing their homes for the market and they are selling. It's all about truly knowing the market and jumping when the appropriate property comes available at market price. So, forget the Pensacola Real Estate Headlines, They Don't Tell the Entire Story.

Downtown Pensacola - Fiestas, Festivals and French Architecture - Could you have more fun than watching the merriment of costume clad people tossing candy and beads? Every summer Pensacolians line the downtown streets for the Fiesta of Five Flags procession and parade. And every summer I do my  best to be in town to catch the goodies during the Fiesta festivities!

The parade route winds its way through the center of downtown Pensacola, passing bystanders on the street and merry makers lining the balconies of upstairs New Orleans style condos and apartments. The parade usually boasts twenty or more floats, McGuire's bagpipe marching band, twirlers, and more.

This year marks the 59th Fiesta of Five Flags. The event started in the 1940s as a way to promote tourism. It marks the landing on Pensacola Beach of Spanish explorer Don Tristan DeLuna and the history of the five flags that have flown over the city; Spanish, French, English, the Confederacy and the United States. The various activites making up today's year round Festival are truly too numerous to list, but include a sand castle contest, a crawfish festival, a treasure hunt, boat parade and seafood festival.

Pensacola's downtown core has a mix of single family homes and condominiums with numerous neighborhoods featuring historic homes as well as newer homes in a variety of historic styles. Real estate prices in the downtown area have not declined as they have in some other areas as there have been several popular revitalization efforts, like the Aragon neighborhood.

Interested in real estate in a "right sized" town with fabulous weather, affordable housing and plenty to do on a regular basis? I'd love to tell you about Pensacola!

Interested in Similar Articles?

Market Trends in the Pensacola Bay Area

Jubilee . . . Remembering Old Florida

Market Trends in the Pensacola Bay Area - We've had our Ups (2003 to 2006) and we've had our Downs (2007 to . . . ). So where are we right now? Here's a year over year comparison for the Pensacola Bay Area's real estate market:

Our total number of sales shows a distinct downward trend - 22% fewer closed sales year over year - to be exact. But, look at the average sold price . . . almost $5,000 higher.

So what gives? Well, it's tough to tell in the macro view, but on the micro level I am seeing the Pensacola Bay Area real estate market remain strong in the $225,000 and under price range while our higher priced inventory is having to adjust prices downward in order to sell.

What does this spell for consumers? For the time being I see opportunities across the board, but particularly on higher priced homes, beach properties and waterfront properties.

The buyers continue to ask, "Is it time to jump in?" My answer, let me run the numbers for you for the particular Pensacola area or neighborhood you are interested in. We can see if properties are trending upward or downward. Then the question is simply, "Are you ready to jump?"

Market Trends in the Pensacola Bay Area - Related Article "It's Raining Real Estate Contracts in Pensacola"

A front page article in today's Wall Street Journal (Real Estate Woes of Banks Mount) laments the fact that we continue to see turmoil in the banking industry on the heels of mounting bad loans the industry made to finance home and condo construction.

The same article includes the sentiment that there are signs of improvement: "At the same time, regulators praised the banking industry for raising capital and for building up reserves against losses. They added that some pockets of the credit markets were showing signs of improvement."

With all the signs pointing in different directions, even according to the Wall Street Journal, what's the poor consumer to do? 

As I've said before, the time to buy and the time to sell if "When you need to." It's not always dictated by the top - or bottom - of the market. That being said, we are seeing signs of a bottom in our market as investors and home owners with good credit and money for downpayments are making purchases based on the perception of VALUE.

This week I put three Pensacola Bay Area properties under contract. All three are listings that had been on the market for some time and all appropriately priced for the current market. As one of my real estate conterparts once said, "There's no problem with a property that price won't cure." 

Wall Street Journal Front Page - Real Estate Woes Mixed Bag

Vacant Homes? How does the number of vacant homes impact your pricing strategies? One of our broker associates just sent me some research she has conducted on the Pensacola Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The numbers show 26% of the Pensacola residential detached resales are vacant. Mind you, this does not count new construction, homes under construction or homes about to be constructed, that are also listed on the MLS. To be specific, of 4,063 resales actively listed, 1052 are vacant and another 832 are in some stage of construction.

My friend attached a "daily tip" from real estate coach Rick DeLuca noting that vacant homes mean motivated sellers.

Do you know how many vacant homes are in your market? If not, perhaps it's time to take a look. We need to get the facts in the hands of the sellers, many of whom have - you guessed it - a vacant home on the market so understand motivation.

We need to get our housing stock priced right or we need to get it off the market until the market catches up with the "potential seller's" expectations. Until we get this done we will continue to be in a saturated buyer's market.

Vacant Homes in the Pensacola real estate market . . . what about your market?

Crab Jubilee - Okay, I'll admit it. I'm 50. Fifty is the new 40 you know (But, of course, in my case it's the new 30). Since I'm being honest about my age I have no problem telling you some of the things I remember about the Old Florida. That's the Florida that came WAY before the internet . . . heck that's the Florida that came WAY before Cable television and the 8-Track (if you don't remember 8-tracks, they came WAY before CDs).

When I was a kid we would finish our hastily prepared dinner, load the Igloo cooler with snacks and head to Santa Rosa Island (Pensacola Beach). We would pull the battery out of the car - no kidding - plunk it in a galvanized tub sitting in an inner tube and connect it to lights we floated on the water. My grandfather would tie the inner tube to his belt loop with a rope and pull the entire contraption behind him as we walked through the Santa Rosa Sound (Intracoastal Waterway), nets in hand. What in God's name were we doing you ask? CRABBING - this is the way you caught your fill of Blue Crab in those days and as a kid, it was more fun that Halloween and the Interstate Fair all wrapped into one.

Now, this is a thing most people have never witnessed, but I count myself among the lucky few (relatively speaking) who have been on the beach at the height of a Jubilee. The biologists will tell you a Jubilee occurs when there is too little oxygen in the water and the crabs make their way to the shore. I will tell you that a Jubilee is a CRAZY TEAMING MASS of Blue Crab making their way to shore by the hundreds of thousands come hell or high water.

I have only seen one Jubilee in my adult life (a small one at that), so I suspect we have done something to alter our environment in such a way as to eliminate this amazing phenomenon. But I cherish the memory of being a child, dozing off in the back seat of a Ford Fairlane, surrounded by buckets of Blue Crab, bubbling their last breaths as we trundled down the highway toward a backyard overflowing with aunts, uncles and cousins all gathered around a bonfire prepared just for one of our southern crab boil get-togethers.

Crab Jubilee - The Florida Panhandle

For More Articles like this:

Blue Crab Jubilee - Wild Delaware

Alabama - Great Days Outdoor Magazine

Mobile Bay Jubilee - Wikipedia