Blog Northwest Florida

My SUPER team of Northwest Florida Realtors just sold a $500,000+ home in less than three months in a market where the average(read - less expensive) home is selling in 5.5 months. How did we do it? By following some tried and true rules of the real estate trade:

#1 Price it Right! This home had been handled by two other real estate groups and been on the market for over a year when we took the listing. Do you think the house was priced right from the beginning? Of course not. And as our market slowed and prices dropped the seller did not drop the price of this home to match . . . a condition we call "chasing the market." By providing the seller with up-to-date, accurate comps we were able to convince them of the appropriate price range to attract a buyer in the current market.

Here are a few other suggestions for selling your home quickly - ones that we always employ - provided by William Bronchick and Ray Cooper, authors of How to Sell a House Fast in a Slow Real Estate Market (2008: John A. Wiley & Sons).

Have Information Available - Buyers need their questions answered, and answered in a timely manner. You need all the key information at your fingertips. Wat are the local taxes? Do you have utility records? Are their covenants and restrictions in the neighborhood? These are only a few of the important questions that buyers want answered.

Market to the Neighbors - They already know and - presumably - love the neighborhood. Give them a chance to be an ambassador for your listing.

Make Sure the Seller Understands the First Offer Rule - And old real estate maxim: the first offer is usually the best offer - is one I've seen born out time and again. The first person to make an offer on the house is likely someone who has been watching the neighborhood for a home. Even though the offer may be low, we always encourage our clients to come back with a counter-offer.

For similar Real Estate Articles - particularly on the Greater Pensacola Bay Area - Click Here

Woo Hoo and Yippee for Me and My Dedicated Team! Not usually one to run around and "Toot My Own Horn," I just have to share this news. The Robin Sherman Realtor team was one of the top 10 Coldwell Banker real estate teams in Florida for the second quarter 2008. Yes, that's right . . . little 'ole us from Pensacola . . . Robin Sherman, Ruthie Johnson and Harriett Gilbreath!

How'd we garner this real estate distinction you ask. By working hard, respecting our clients and delivering what they want elegantly and efficiently. But what - exactly - did we do? We listed more properties and sold more properties in the second quarter of this year than all but 9 other Coldwell Banker teams in the state. And who knows . . . they didn't give us our number ranking so . . . suppose we were number one? Say it could be so!!!

Now, before I let my dreams of jetting off for talk show interviews take over I'll come back down to earth to share something important that this distinction proves: REAL ESTATE IS SELLING! If homes are priced right there are buyers waiting to buy them.

Look for more good things from my team in the future as we are constantly looking for GREAT ways to serve our clients' real estate needs. We have a SUPER new home search website that you can access by Clicking Here.

We're pretty darn proud of our track record and we thank you - dear clients, each and every one - for helping us climb these heights!

How lucky am I? VERY, VERY lucky! Being an active real estate agent in these trying times, I try to remind myself every day of the many ways I count myself lucky!

So here's number one for today: I have tagged along on one of my husband's business trips to Lake Tahoe. Doesn't get much more lucky than that, but what - dear reader- you ask does that have to do with real estate and affordable housing in Pensacola? Well, absolutely everything!

Do you have any idea just how lucky I am to be a real estate agent in an area where housing truly is AFFORDABLE? In today's trying economic climate it makes the difference between making a home sale - and bringing home a paycheck - and looking for other employment opportunities until the housing market turns around. 

So number two for today: I live and work in an area - the Greater Pensacola Bay Area - of AMAZINGLY AFFORDABLE housing.

I had the good fortune (luck again) to meet a young couple in the hot tub at our hotel here in Lake Tahoe. They live just south of San Francisco and were telling me that when they bought their home almost two years ago they were fortunate to pay only - ONLY - $590,000. Did I mention this was a young couple? Perhaps in their early thirties? They were bemoaning the fact that when they bought the home they thought they were lucky (fortune again) to pay less than $600,000, in a neighborhood where most of the homes were selling in the mid $600,000s. Today there are several foreclosures in their neighborhood of approximately 150 single family homes, and while they realize their home has lost value, they estimate it would still sell in the mid $500,000s today.

So, what is the average sales price for a single family home in the Pensacola area? From October 21, 2007, to today, the average sales price comes in at $177,750. I don't discount the importance of wages in the area and certainly Pensacola can not compete salary-wise with northern California, but WOW what an affordable housing market Pensacola really has!

Want to know more about home values in Pensacola? Click Hereto visit my blog at Active Rain. 

Pensacola's Downtown Improvement Board just had their annual meeting and the keynote speaker, Leland R. Speed, told attendees that Pensacola's small town charm and big city amenities position it particularly well to take advantage of the next major demographic trend: movement from large cities to small cities with high quality of life.

Speed, the former executive director of the Mississippi Development Authority, pointed out that Pensacola's waterfront is vital to the city's economic success.

"When I look at what you have here, I salivate," said Speed. He told the audience that the opportunities the downtown waterfront and properties afford the area are truly unique in his experience. Speed mentioned the physical assests including historic buildings and waterfront and waterview land that is available for development.  

Some positive growth numbers for downtown businesses were also presented at the meeting. A recent survey showed that downtown Pensacola is home to 578 individual businesses with at least one employee and that the number of workers in downtown Pensacola is just lest than 10,000, a net gain of 831 workers since January of 2005.

Given the constant barrage of bad economic news, who would guess that little 'ole Pensacola, Florida, has the third highest job growth rate in the state. Or even more unbelievable, that Pensacola's five years of job growth put it in place number 29 for the nation. As Carlton Proctor pointed out in a Pensacola News Journal article today, nearby Mobile, AL, only ranted in the 125th place and powerhouse Atlanta rated number 59.

These numbers come from a study by the privately funded Milken Institute. The study pointed out that Pensacola's overall ranking, including one-year and five-year growth rates, put it in the 33rd place in the nation.

So we hear enough of what Pensacola is doing wrong, what is the city doing right? Surely something to garner such good job growth rankings. Many point to the growth of small high tech firms who find the Pensacola Bay Area's proximity to area military installations- NAS Pensacola, Hurlburt AFB, Eglin AFB and their associated defense industry contractors - as one of the drivers of this job growth. The Pensacola Bay Area Chamber of Commerce has worked hard to promote both tourism and job growth and should be lauded for innovative economic development efforts like I-10 Wired, an outreach and networking initiative to help small high tech firms connect.

But our affordable housing, award winning schools and good quality of life are also responsible. So, let's resist jumping on the negative bandwagon and look around at what is really going on in Northwest Florida!

Looking at a graph of residental sales for the Pensacola real estate market could make you feel a bit like you are racing down the back side of a roller coaster's big loop. The number of sales has fallen dramatically from the late 2005 and early 2006 highs. However, actual Pensacola area home sale prices haven't fallen nearly as dramatically. What are the numbers and what do they mean?

Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties (Pensacola Area) Total Number of Single Family Resales

Last week I attended a presentation by Al Muller from Metro Market Trends, a company that has been tracking and reporting on real estate sales since 1990. Some of the points he made about Pensacola area real estate home sales trends are well worth sharing. The graph above shows a 12 month moving average of actual home sales in the Pensacola area: Escambia (Blue Line) and Santa Rosa (Green Line) counties.

Some of the conclusions to be drawn include:

• The run up (2002 to 2006) was a historic economic event which has never happened before, or as Al put it, "a boom of historic proportions."
• The graphs for most Florida counties look roughly the same, as shown when comparing Escambia and Santa Rosa.
• Hurricane Ivan was not really significant in spurring the run up; the market was already hot.
• 2001 was the last year of a "normal" real estate market.

Below is another great graph Al provided which shows the residential resale numbers in Escambia County from 2005 to 2008. The trends look almost identical for Santa Rosa County. Note that the monthly number of Pensacola area real estate resales peaked in 2005 (Jan. to June) at roughly 800 units. In 2008 this peak was only about 270. By anyone's measure, this is a huge decline.  

Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties (Pensacola Area) Median Price for Residential Resales

But what has happened to home sale prices as Pensacola real estate sales have declined so precipitously? Well, they haven't dropped nearly as much as you would expect. Al's next graph shows how the sales have slowly inched down.

There are probably numerous reasons why prices have not fallen more dramatically. Many sellers have "chased the market down" by pricing their homes above the true sales value. Many sellers that bought from 2004 to 2006 feel stuck in their homes as they paid more than for them than they can sell them for today. And many sellers have just been slow to recognize the market for what it is.

As an agent I will admit to finding myself "chasing the market down" on more than one occassion when dealing with reluctant sellers. More than a year ago I instituted a policy of NEVER taking overpriced listings. My total number of listings has dropped, but my success rate measured in closed sales has increased since making that decision.

So Where is the Bottom of the Pensacola Area Real Estate Market?

That's the question we all have. Al Muller thinks he has the answer. At least he has the best backed prediction that I have seen and here it is:

This graph shows (Dotted Yellow Line) the historic real estate sales rate for the Greater Pensacola Bay Area. It also shows (Blue Line) the actual real estate sales rate. Where the two lines intersect should be the elusive "Bottom" of the Market. The sales trend for Santa Rosa Count residential real estate resales looks much the same.

What can we conclude from this graph?

• Prices for residential real estate in the Greater Pensacola Bay Area must still drop. Al Muller estimates a necessary 7% drop for Escambia County and a 16% drop for Santa Rosa County.
• Equilibrium, or "the Bottom" of the market will occur in late 2010.

Implications for buyers and sellers in Northwest Florida

As a buyer, you are in a window of opportunity. Mortgage rates are inching up and credit is getting tighter so if you are in the market go ahead and make your offer. Negotiate fiercely knowing that the market is still overpriced.

As a seller you have two choices. Reduce your price to match the current market and sell now or take your home off the market until it reaches your expectations and then relist.

All graphs were provided my Metro Market Trends

Buyer's Market in Pensacola . . . But Things Look to be Changing! Most experts agree, once you exceed six months of housing inventory in a local real estate market, you are in a Buyer's Market. And like most of the country, the Greater Pensacola Bay Area has found itself in a buyer's market for more than two years now.

But is a shift afoot? The numbers seem to say so. Our average selling price has stabilized, or crept up, depending on which month you choose as your cutoff point. And our inventory, while at a whopping 15.44 months for the month ending in May, was a far cry from the height of 24.46 months back in January.

And while there was plenty of bad news to focus on in the annual "State of the Nation's Housing" report issued today by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, a "mild downturn" is the concensus forecast of the majority of economists, and "the fundamentals of demand are likely to drive a strong rebound in housing once prices bottom out and the economy begins to recover."

With the baby boomers hitting their peak retirement years from 2012 to 2014, markets on the coast with mild climates and affordable housing, like the Greater Pensacola Bay Area, look like a good bet for real estate.

For a similar article:

Definition of a Buyer's Market, Pensacola Bay Area Style

Pensacola Real Estate Headlines Don't Tell the Entire Story . . . Today's Pensacola News Journal's feature story on the local real estate market was headlined "Area Home Sales Continue to Slide." But within the same newspaper another real estate article was headlined ""Prices Remain Higher Despite More Competition, Fewer Buyers."

Both of these headlines ring true, but there are back stories (Aren't there always?). The first article points out that we are seeing significantly fewer sales; 599 in May of '08 vs. 870 in May of '07, but doesn't really explore the fact that actual prices aren't declining by much.  The second article hits this, pointing out that our prices aren't coming down in relation to the declining number of sales. Sellers (potential sellers!) are clinging to their higher prices. And, a quick look at the large number of withdrawn and expired listings tells the tale of many potential sellers simply choosing to hold on to their Pensacola area properties.

Here's the thing to understand - to borrow from the National Association of Realtors - "all real estate is local." And by local I mean we really have to drill down to the local real estate sub markets. I just posted a Pensacola Beach real estate market update on my Pensacola Undressed blog that shows the total number of sales on the beach, as well as sales prices, increasing year over year. Accurate? Absolutely. But is there more to the story than the numbers tell? Yes. Several very expensive units ($2m +) in a Gulf front pre-construction property closed early this year skewing the statistics.  

Of course, like most of the rest of the country the Greater Pensacola Bay Area real estate market has seen some significant changes. Our prices were rising rapidly prior to Hurricane Ivan, and then the loss of inventory in the wake of the storm meant that homes went for full price or more for a period of time. As the market started settling back in the economy, on a national level, became a growing concern.

So here we sit. Too much inventory at prices that don't tempt the market.

But, are there opportunities? You'd better believe it. Not all sellers want to be sellers forever. Some people need to move on and are pricing their homes for the market and they are selling. It's all about truly knowing the market and jumping when the appropriate property comes available at market price. So, forget the Pensacola Real Estate Headlines, They Don't Tell the Entire Story.

Downtown Pensacola - Fiestas, Festivals and French Architecture - Could you have more fun than watching the merriment of costume clad people tossing candy and beads? Every summer Pensacolians line the downtown streets for the Fiesta of Five Flags procession and parade. And every summer I do my  best to be in town to catch the goodies during the Fiesta festivities!

The parade route winds its way through the center of downtown Pensacola, passing bystanders on the street and merry makers lining the balconies of upstairs New Orleans style condos and apartments. The parade usually boasts twenty or more floats, McGuire's bagpipe marching band, twirlers, and more.

This year marks the 59th Fiesta of Five Flags. The event started in the 1940s as a way to promote tourism. It marks the landing on Pensacola Beach of Spanish explorer Don Tristan DeLuna and the history of the five flags that have flown over the city; Spanish, French, English, the Confederacy and the United States. The various activites making up today's year round Festival are truly too numerous to list, but include a sand castle contest, a crawfish festival, a treasure hunt, boat parade and seafood festival.

Pensacola's downtown core has a mix of single family homes and condominiums with numerous neighborhoods featuring historic homes as well as newer homes in a variety of historic styles. Real estate prices in the downtown area have not declined as they have in some other areas as there have been several popular revitalization efforts, like the Aragon neighborhood.

Interested in real estate in a "right sized" town with fabulous weather, affordable housing and plenty to do on a regular basis? I'd love to tell you about Pensacola!

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