Got the question again today, "Have we hit bottom yet?" Well, to be honest the answer is Yes And No. As the National Association of Realtors has worked hard to explain, all real estate is local. And then there's local within a given area.
Here's a Pensacola Beach, FL, example. In 2005 I sold a Gulf front condo in a particular building for $700,000. A few days later another agent in my office sold the same floorplan for $715,000. These are great units with stellar rental history and as I said . . . Gulf front, but this was top of the market. Zip forward to late '07 and early '08. We had four of these units come on the market for between $375,000 and $425,000. Guess what . . . the smart money jumped in and they all sold quickly (Can you spell CASH FLOW?). It appears that all those that needed to sell did so as there is now only one active listing of this same floorplan and it is priced at $565,000. So, as far as this building goes . . . We've hit bottom.
And then I can give you an example of another condo project on the same beach where we haven't hit bottom. This building isn't Gulf front, but it's only a few hundred yards away from the Gulf and it is truly amenity packed. But the fundamentals are different. It's newer, farther from the retail core and doesn't have the repeat rental business yet. It also doesn't rent as well because it isn't Gulf front. Because there are so many amenities there are "amenity fees" associated with the rentals and renters tend to balk at this if there is an alternative. This project was sold when the pre-construction rush was in full force so there were a lot of "speculator" sales. So, as far as this building goes . . . We haven't hit bottom yet. 
Bottom line (So to speak!) - just as with stocks - you need good professional help if you are looking at timing the real estate market.
One thing is for sure, as with stocks there is a cycle to real estate and many factors impacting that cycle. The smart money doesn't always get the bottom, but it usually gets pretty close.
So the next time you get the question, "Hit bottom yet?" The answer really needs to be . . . you bet . . . let me give you the specifics!
What a FABULOUS weekend in Pensacola - Northwest Florida. The sun was out, the tourists were out, I was out! It doesn't get much better than this. According to our Chamber of Commerce we should be in for a record tourism season. 
