Blog Northwest Florida

Pensacola Beach could have a whole new look if plans put forward by the Santa Rosa Island Authority this week move forward. The proposal will be presented at a public meeting to be held at the Island Authority offices on Pensacola Beach on Wednesday evening.

The improvements proposed are for the core business area of the beach and include over 240,000 square feet of retail space, more than 2,000 parking spaces, a new Visitor's Center and Island Authority offices and a walkover bridge for Via DeLuna. The parking spaces would be housed in three separate parking decks in a central area.

Construction cost estimates as well projected tax revenues from the project will be presented at the public meeting. Drawings of the proposed improvements by architect Carter Quina will also be on display Wednesday evening.

If the plans move forward the Island Authority's next step will be to work to find funding sources for the proposal.

Interested in attending the public meeting? It will be held at 5pm Wednesday in the Santa Rosa Island Authority offices at 1 Via DeLuna Drive on Pensacola Beach.

Looking at a graph of residental sales for the Pensacola real estate market could make you feel a bit like you are racing down the back side of a roller coaster's big loop. The number of sales has fallen dramatically from the late 2005 and early 2006 highs. However, actual Pensacola area home sale prices haven't fallen nearly as dramatically. What are the numbers and what do they mean?

Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties (Pensacola Area) Total Number of Single Family Resales

Last week I attended a presentation by Al Muller from Metro Market Trends, a company that has been tracking and reporting on real estate sales since 1990. Some of the points he made about Pensacola area real estate home sales trends are well worth sharing. The graph above shows a 12 month moving average of actual home sales in the Pensacola area: Escambia (Blue Line) and Santa Rosa (Green Line) counties.

Some of the conclusions to be drawn include:

• The run up (2002 to 2006) was a historic economic event which has never happened before, or as Al put it, "a boom of historic proportions."
• The graphs for most Florida counties look roughly the same, as shown when comparing Escambia and Santa Rosa.
• Hurricane Ivan was not really significant in spurring the run up; the market was already hot.
• 2001 was the last year of a "normal" real estate market.

Below is another great graph Al provided which shows the residential resale numbers in Escambia County from 2005 to 2008. The trends look almost identical for Santa Rosa County. Note that the monthly number of Pensacola area real estate resales peaked in 2005 (Jan. to June) at roughly 800 units. In 2008 this peak was only about 270. By anyone's measure, this is a huge decline.  

Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties (Pensacola Area) Median Price for Residential Resales

But what has happened to home sale prices as Pensacola real estate sales have declined so precipitously? Well, they haven't dropped nearly as much as you would expect. Al's next graph shows how the sales have slowly inched down.

There are probably numerous reasons why prices have not fallen more dramatically. Many sellers have "chased the market down" by pricing their homes above the true sales value. Many sellers that bought from 2004 to 2006 feel stuck in their homes as they paid more than for them than they can sell them for today. And many sellers have just been slow to recognize the market for what it is.

As an agent I will admit to finding myself "chasing the market down" on more than one occassion when dealing with reluctant sellers. More than a year ago I instituted a policy of NEVER taking overpriced listings. My total number of listings has dropped, but my success rate measured in closed sales has increased since making that decision.

So Where is the Bottom of the Pensacola Area Real Estate Market?

That's the question we all have. Al Muller thinks he has the answer. At least he has the best backed prediction that I have seen and here it is:

This graph shows (Dotted Yellow Line) the historic real estate sales rate for the Greater Pensacola Bay Area. It also shows (Blue Line) the actual real estate sales rate. Where the two lines intersect should be the elusive "Bottom" of the Market. The sales trend for Santa Rosa Count residential real estate resales looks much the same.

What can we conclude from this graph?

• Prices for residential real estate in the Greater Pensacola Bay Area must still drop. Al Muller estimates a necessary 7% drop for Escambia County and a 16% drop for Santa Rosa County.
• Equilibrium, or "the Bottom" of the market will occur in late 2010.

Implications for buyers and sellers in Northwest Florida

As a buyer, you are in a window of opportunity. Mortgage rates are inching up and credit is getting tighter so if you are in the market go ahead and make your offer. Negotiate fiercely knowing that the market is still overpriced.

As a seller you have two choices. Reduce your price to match the current market and sell now or take your home off the market until it reaches your expectations and then relist.

All graphs were provided my Metro Market Trends

Energy Conscious? Score Big with Walk Score when House Hunting . . . one of the MANY interesting things I learned while completing my Eco-Broker real estate designation was about a web site, www.WalkScore.com, where you can find "walkable" places to live. With ever increasing gasoline prices, this is pretty compelling, don't you think? Well you know me, I just had to check out my current home in Gulf Breeze to find the Walk Score.

So here's what I learned about my Gulf Breeze home's "walkability.". My home has a walk score of 11 out of 100. Pretty pitiful - and shocking - when you consider I live on a bit of a hill overlooking the beautiful Santa Rosa Sound where I can watch sailboats and pelicans glide past while I take my morning walk. All that in nice weather MOST of the time.

It turns out the Walk Score for an address - a home's Walk Score - is not about the beauty or comfort of a walk, instead it is designed to help consumers figure out how to live a "car lite" lifestyle. So what does the program consider when determining a Walk Score for a particular address? Here are some of the factors:

• Is there a "Center" - as in shopping, markets, businesses?
• What's the population density?
• Is the area mixed income/mixed use?
• Are there parks and public space?
• How accessible is the area?
• Are there well connected streets with speed control in place?
• Is it close to schools and workplaces?

Now, before you begin to think that this is the coolest real estate tool to come down the pike, consider some of the important things the algorithm doesn't take into consideration:

• The availability of public transportation.
• Safety
• Topography
• Weather

Now, while I think we all need to focus on energy conservation, my view is that the there's more to my neighborhood's "walkability" than the gasoline I can save. Perhaps the web site designers will tweek the algorithms in the future, but until then, at least it's an interesting program providing another piece of the house hunting puzzle.

Buyer's Market in Pensacola . . . But Things Look to be Changing! Most experts agree, once you exceed six months of housing inventory in a local real estate market, you are in a Buyer's Market. And like most of the country, the Greater Pensacola Bay Area has found itself in a buyer's market for more than two years now.

But is a shift afoot? The numbers seem to say so. Our average selling price has stabilized, or crept up, depending on which month you choose as your cutoff point. And our inventory, while at a whopping 15.44 months for the month ending in May, was a far cry from the height of 24.46 months back in January.

And while there was plenty of bad news to focus on in the annual "State of the Nation's Housing" report issued today by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, a "mild downturn" is the concensus forecast of the majority of economists, and "the fundamentals of demand are likely to drive a strong rebound in housing once prices bottom out and the economy begins to recover."

With the baby boomers hitting their peak retirement years from 2012 to 2014, markets on the coast with mild climates and affordable housing, like the Greater Pensacola Bay Area, look like a good bet for real estate.

For a similar article:

Definition of a Buyer's Market, Pensacola Bay Area Style

Pensacola Real Estate Headlines Don't Tell the Entire Story . . . Today's Pensacola News Journal's feature story on the local real estate market was headlined "Area Home Sales Continue to Slide." But within the same newspaper another real estate article was headlined ""Prices Remain Higher Despite More Competition, Fewer Buyers."

Both of these headlines ring true, but there are back stories (Aren't there always?). The first article points out that we are seeing significantly fewer sales; 599 in May of '08 vs. 870 in May of '07, but doesn't really explore the fact that actual prices aren't declining by much.  The second article hits this, pointing out that our prices aren't coming down in relation to the declining number of sales. Sellers (potential sellers!) are clinging to their higher prices. And, a quick look at the large number of withdrawn and expired listings tells the tale of many potential sellers simply choosing to hold on to their Pensacola area properties.

Here's the thing to understand - to borrow from the National Association of Realtors - "all real estate is local." And by local I mean we really have to drill down to the local real estate sub markets. I just posted a Pensacola Beach real estate market update on my Pensacola Undressed blog that shows the total number of sales on the beach, as well as sales prices, increasing year over year. Accurate? Absolutely. But is there more to the story than the numbers tell? Yes. Several very expensive units ($2m +) in a Gulf front pre-construction property closed early this year skewing the statistics.  

Of course, like most of the rest of the country the Greater Pensacola Bay Area real estate market has seen some significant changes. Our prices were rising rapidly prior to Hurricane Ivan, and then the loss of inventory in the wake of the storm meant that homes went for full price or more for a period of time. As the market started settling back in the economy, on a national level, became a growing concern.

So here we sit. Too much inventory at prices that don't tempt the market.

But, are there opportunities? You'd better believe it. Not all sellers want to be sellers forever. Some people need to move on and are pricing their homes for the market and they are selling. It's all about truly knowing the market and jumping when the appropriate property comes available at market price. So, forget the Pensacola Real Estate Headlines, They Don't Tell the Entire Story.

Galveston's East Beach Palisade Palms Luxury Condos Now Closing . . . So what's a Florida real estate broker doing blogging on a Texas condominium project? I'm so glad you asked!

While my primary real estate market area is the Greater Pensacola Bay Area and I sell all manner of residential (and on occasion commercial) property in the Pensacola area, I am also licensed in Alabama and Mississippi and sell real estate across the Gulf Coast. Back in 2005, while I was knee deep in selling pre-construction condominiums throughout the three state region, I was approached by a Texas developer with a condominium project planned for East Beach on Galveston Island. Did I have clients that might be interested? At first I wasn't so sure, but after a quick fact finding trip to the East Beach site and several meetings with the Palisade Palms principals, I realized that I have LOTS of clients who would find this landmark condominium very exciting. Ultimately, I had just under 30 clients that decided to purchase in this outstanding Galveston luxury condominium project.

Fast forward to today and - guess what - this twin tower modern landmark is complete and residents are moving in! And what an amazing, amentiy rich condominium project Palisade Palms really is! The two towers front the Gulf of Mexico and the amazing curvilinear design allows sweeping Gulf views and privacy from the unit balconies.

This is one large project, with a total of 288 units and nine separate floorplans ranging from 1,044 square feet to 2,957 square feet. The project is just a quick one hour drive from Houston. One amazing selling point, this is the first modern highrise built on Galveston Island in over 20 years! And is it modern! Here are just a few of the Palisade Palms condominium amenities:

Plaza Deck with Infinity Edge Pool and Spa Hot Tubs, Children's Pool, Luau Fire Pits, Tennis Courts, Doggie Bark Park, Kids Club Area and Sandbox, Lobby Entrance with Dramatic 20 foot Ceilings, Lobby Lounge with Gulfside Views, On Site Property Management Ofices, Business Services and Conference Meeting Room, Morning Lounge, 2nd Floor Lounge and Cafe Bar, State of the Art Fitness Center, Cocktail Lounge and Private Dining/Party Room with Catering Kitchen . . . well, You get the idea!

Are you or one of your clients interested in Palisade Palms? Be sure and give me a call and let me walk you through the ins and outs of purchasing property on the Gulf Coast - Florida to Texas! I'll be happy to help! Galveston's East Beach Palisade Palms Luxury Condos Now Closing . . .

This blog is written by Robin Sherman, MA, CRS, Broker Associate, Colcwell Banker United Realtors. All views and opinions are her own. You can contact Robin via phone at 850-516-8185 or e-mail her at Robin@PensacolaForYou.com.

Downtown Pensacola - Fiestas, Festivals and French Architecture - Could you have more fun than watching the merriment of costume clad people tossing candy and beads? Every summer Pensacolians line the downtown streets for the Fiesta of Five Flags procession and parade. And every summer I do my  best to be in town to catch the goodies during the Fiesta festivities!

The parade route winds its way through the center of downtown Pensacola, passing bystanders on the street and merry makers lining the balconies of upstairs New Orleans style condos and apartments. The parade usually boasts twenty or more floats, McGuire's bagpipe marching band, twirlers, and more.

This year marks the 59th Fiesta of Five Flags. The event started in the 1940s as a way to promote tourism. It marks the landing on Pensacola Beach of Spanish explorer Don Tristan DeLuna and the history of the five flags that have flown over the city; Spanish, French, English, the Confederacy and the United States. The various activites making up today's year round Festival are truly too numerous to list, but include a sand castle contest, a crawfish festival, a treasure hunt, boat parade and seafood festival.

Pensacola's downtown core has a mix of single family homes and condominiums with numerous neighborhoods featuring historic homes as well as newer homes in a variety of historic styles. Real estate prices in the downtown area have not declined as they have in some other areas as there have been several popular revitalization efforts, like the Aragon neighborhood.

Interested in real estate in a "right sized" town with fabulous weather, affordable housing and plenty to do on a regular basis? I'd love to tell you about Pensacola!

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Creative Real Estate Marketing or Just Plain Silly? Now, I am the first to admit there is more than one way to skin the cat . . . or sell the home in this instance. But . . . luring buyers with $30 bottles or chardonnay, free dog biscuits or aromatherapy candles? I'm just not so sure.

I'm referring to the story on the front of the USA Today Money Section:  "Come look at this house, I'll give you a bottle of wine."

The gist of the article is that sellers and real estate agents across the country are so "desperate" that they are giving away $30 bottles of chardonnay - and the like - just to get buyers and other agents to tour their listings.

Now, I'm not opposed to the agent Open House with a brunch or lunch as a draw, and I'm all for creative real estate marketing, but . . . I'm just not sure someone who is looking to buy a $2.5 million home - as the example used in the article - is going to be convinced to tour the home based on the offer of a $30 bottle of chardonnay.

Creative real estate marketing? I'd say some fabulous photos placed on the appropriate web sites with a dynamite description, some super SOI networking (including a Broker Open House), a competitive price and a bit of luck thrown in for good measure would take the agents a lot closer to their goal. What say you?

Market Trends in the Pensacola Bay Area - We've had our Ups (2003 to 2006) and we've had our Downs (2007 to . . . ). So where are we right now? Here's a year over year comparison for the Pensacola Bay Area's real estate market:

Our total number of sales shows a distinct downward trend - 22% fewer closed sales year over year - to be exact. But, look at the average sold price . . . almost $5,000 higher.

So what gives? Well, it's tough to tell in the macro view, but on the micro level I am seeing the Pensacola Bay Area real estate market remain strong in the $225,000 and under price range while our higher priced inventory is having to adjust prices downward in order to sell.

What does this spell for consumers? For the time being I see opportunities across the board, but particularly on higher priced homes, beach properties and waterfront properties.

The buyers continue to ask, "Is it time to jump in?" My answer, let me run the numbers for you for the particular Pensacola area or neighborhood you are interested in. We can see if properties are trending upward or downward. Then the question is simply, "Are you ready to jump?"

Market Trends in the Pensacola Bay Area - Related Article "It's Raining Real Estate Contracts in Pensacola"